Toledo Weather - Oct 7, 2014

Mesoscale discussion issued this afternoon that includes parts of northwest Ohio.

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md 1826 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for portions of ern indiana and wrn ohio

mesoscale discussion 1826
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0325 pm cdt tue oct 07 2014

areas affected...portions of ern indiana and wrn ohio

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 072025z - 072230z

probability of watch issuance...5 percent

summary...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will cross the region
into the late afternoon...and a few storms could produce marginally
svr hail. however...the issuance of a ww is not needed.

discussion...the northern indiana and indianapolis vwps sample 40-60
kt of mid-level wlys/wnwlys that will continue to offer sufficient
deep shear for sustained convective elements/multicell clusters to
spread across the region through the afternoon hours. marginal
instability is extending into the region. this is in association
with cold mid-level temperatures -- e.g. h5 temps between -21c and
-17c -- overlying modest sfc heating induced by pockets of
insolation behind earlier precipitation that crossed the region.
however...with sfc dewpoints only in the lower/middle
50s...instability will remain marginal -- i.e. mlcape generally aob
500 j/kg. with the cold air aloft...isolated instances of marginally
svr hail cannot be ruled out. however...with weak low-level
convergence depicted by 1-km-agl plan view depictions of vwp data
and sfc observations...and without stronger buoyancy...a more
substantial svr-tstm risk is not expected.

..cohen/darrow.. 10/07/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...iln...iwx...ind...

lat...lon 39718661 41538577 41548408 40248447 39608557 39718661